Overall situation: Most products held prices firm, while some were dragged down by capacity and raw materials. Costs of zinc salts and manganese salts provided a floor, keeping quotes stable; prices of zinc sulfate heptahydrate diverged under capacity pressure; copper sulfate fell 100 yuan/t, and cobalt chloride plunged 10,000 yuan/t. Demand has not improved, and the market still relies on cost support.
Next week's focus: At the macro level, closely watch how US CPI and PPI data affect non-ferrous metal prices; at the industry level, focus on the pace of downstream demand recovery.
II. Core Data Overview
III. Trading Strategy Table
IV. Macro Information and Risk Alerts
(1) Review of This Week's Macro Events
1. Midterm elections: Democrats regained control of both the Senate and the House. The market expects the Trump administration's military action against Iran to be constrained by Congress and the Middle East conflict to shift toward a diplomatic solution; risk appetite recovered, international oil prices fell sharply, and the US dollar index weakened to a more than one-month low, which is bullish for metal prices.
2. Economic data: US October ISM manufacturing PMI came in at 55.5 (expected 54.6), showing stronger-than-expected manufacturing resilience; October ADP employment rose by 86,000 (expected 67,000). Expectations for another Fed rate hike in December rose rather than fell, which is bearish for metal prices.
(2) Next Week's Risk Alerts
Next week, watch US October CPI (November 10) and PPI (November 13). The market currently prices the probability of a December rate hike at nearly 80%. If inflation exceeds expectations and rate-hike expectations are confirmed, the US dollar and Treasury yields will strengthen, weighing on copper, zinc and other non-ferrous metal prices; if inflation falls significantly, tightening expectations will cool, opening room for a rebound in metal prices.
V. Metal Spot Price Comparison
Note: The first week of November refers to November 2–6; the fourth week of October refers to October 26–30.
VI. Detailed Analysis by Product
This week, the zinc price fell 239 yuan week-on-week to 25,469 yuan/t. Next week's outlook: The fundamental setup of tight raw materials and continued zinc ingot destocking (domestic inventory fell to 179,100 t) is unlikely to change in the short term and will provide a floor for prices; macro factors still dominate price direction. If inflation data continues to beat expectations, zinc prices will remain under pressure. Zinc prices are expected to trade weakly within a range next week, with the key level around 25,350 yuan/t.
(1) Zinc Sulfate Monohydrate: A Tug of War Between Demand Drag and a Loss‑Driven Floor
Orders and operating rates: 30 days (flat), operating rate 60% (↑2%), capacity utilization 58% (↑1%).
Core logic: Producers remain loss-making, leaving no room to lower quotes, but demand lacks real traction, so they can only hold steady and wait. Although the shortage of secondary zinc oxide supports prices, it is hard to reverse the weakness.
Demand: On the domestic side, feed mills restock only as needed, while the fertilizer segment is weighed down by high finished-fertilizer inventories; on the export side, ocean freight on South American routes kept falling, while other routes held stable at high levels. Ocean freight remains the main barometer of export demand.
Recommendation: Focus on how later ocean freight trends affect export demand, and restock normally as needed.
(2) Zinc Sulfate Heptahydrate: Capacity Release Hits Mainstream Prices
Orders and operating rates: 25–30 days (flat), operating rate 79% (↑4%), capacity utilization 56% (↑7%).
Core logic: Higher capacity has brought more low-quality supply, and some producers have lowered prices; however, the cost floor of the secondary zinc oxide route means mainstream prices are unlikely to fall sharply for now.
Demand: The chemical fiber industry maintains essential demand, the mineral processing industry has not yet picked up, and exports are weak due to ocean freight disruptions.
Recommendation: Purchase as needed based on your own inventory.
(3) Activated Zinc Oxide: Industry Losses Provide a Floor, Producer Quotes Stay Firm
Orders and operating rates: 20–25 days (flat), operating rate 72% (flat), capacity utilization 46% (↓2%).
Core logic: Overall demand is weak, some producers have cut output, and costs provide a floor for prices.
Demand: Desulfurization industry inventories are high, the rubber industry is running at reduced rates under high cost pressure, and the feed industry's long-term demand is dragged down by falling breeding sow inventories.
Recommendation: With costs providing a floor, a sharp drop is unlikely; restock normally according to your own inventory.
(4) Manganese Sulfate Monohydrate: Supply Contraction Offsets High Costs
Orders and operating rates: 25–30 days (flat), operating rate 81% (↓13%), capacity utilization 65% (↓6%).
Core logic: High manganese ore and sulfuric acid costs limit the decline, and temporary shutdowns at some producers have caused a short-term supply contraction, keeping producer quotes stable.
Demand: Fertilizer and feed demand have not improved, and overseas exports remain hindered by ocean freight disruptions.
Recommendation: At this stage of supply-demand bargaining, simply restock normally according to your own inventory.
(5) Copper Sulfate: Macro Pressure on Copper Prices, Supply and Demand Limit the Decline
Orders and operating rates: operating rate 100% (flat), capacity utilization 42% (flat).
Core logic: Copper sulfate producers followed the decline in raw material costs and lowered quotes.
Copper price impact: Copper prices rose first and then fell this week. After the midterm elections, a weaker dollar briefly boosted copper prices, but stronger-than-expected ADP employment then raised expectations of a December rate hike; combined with a wait-and-see mood ahead of the nonfarm payrolls release, copper prices fell 689 yuan week-on-week to 109,731 yuan/t. Next week's macro focus is CPI and PPI data: inflation above expectations would pressure copper prices, but tight copper concentrate and high spot premiums provide a floor. Electrolytic copper is expected to trade in the 108,000–110,000 yuan/t range.
Recommendation: The decline in copper sulfate is constrained by its own supply and demand; purchase opportunistically according to production schedules and avoid stockpiling at high prices.
(6) Ferrous Sulfate: Standoff Between New Capacity and High Costs
Orders and operating rates: operating rate 75% (↑12%), capacity utilization 29% (↑9%).
Core logic: Rising costs provide a floor for prices, but new capacity coming online brings supply pressure; producer quotes are stable as the market waits and sees.
Demand: As earlier inventories are digested, purchasing remains on a need basis.
Recommendation: Prices have little room for a deep decline in the short term; purchase as needed based on your own inventory.
(7) Calcium Iodate: Stable Costs Cannot Mask Weak Demand
Orders and operating rates: operating rate 100%, capacity utilization 51%.
Core logic: Refined iodine prices were stable this week amid a wait-and-see mood, and calcium iodate producer quotes held steady.
Recommendation: Pharmaceutical demand is unlikely to improve, and refined iodine prices can hardly provide upward momentum; purchase flexibly according to your own inventory.
(8) Sodium Selenite: Raw Material Shortage, Sellers Hold Back Sales
Orders and operating rates: operating rate 100%, capacity utilization 24%, flat week-on-week.
Core logic: Crude selenium supply remains tight; with strong cost drivers, producers held firm this week.
Recommendation: The raw material shortage is unlikely to change in the short term and cost support remains strong; lock in orders promptly according to your own inventory.
(9) Cobalt Chloride: Double Blow from Cost Collapse and Weak Demand
Orders and operating rates: operating rate 100%, capacity utilization 44%.
Core logic: Raw material prices fell again this week, weakening cost support and pushing producer quotes lower.
Recommendation: Demand from the ternary battery industry, the main downstream market for cobalt salts, has no short-term boost, and raw materials have not yet stabilized; purchase opportunistically and flexibly.
